Author Archive: Tim Buckley

Director of Energy Finance Studies, Australasia, Tim Buckley has 25 years of financial markets experience, specializing in equity valuation, including as a top-rated analyst and as co-founder and managing director of Arkx Investment Management.


IEEFA Update: IEA, Still Behind the Curve, Nonetheless Indicates Rising Stranded-Asset Risk in Fossil-Fuel Holdings

IEEFA Update: IEA, Still Behind the Curve, Nonetheless Indicates Rising Stranded-Asset Risk in Fossil-Fuel Holdings

A Not-So-Distant Future in Which Thermal-Fired Electricity Generation Declines Precipitously

The International Energy Agency, out with its annual energy-markets forecast, “World Energy Outlook 2016,” remains behind the curve but not as far behind as it was. A history of IEA underestimation of technology change has been partially remedied in this new report, but the agency’s solar and wind forecasts can at best be described still […]

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IEEFA China: Why the Rally in Coal Prices Is Unsustainable

A Short-Term Surge Is at the Mercy of Long-Term Trends

While thermal coal export prices have doubled since the first of the year, IEEFA remains of the view that the price spike is due solely to the confluence of several short-term policy and weather factors in China and India. By far the more important trend to watch is what’s seen in the 10.7 percent year-on-year, […]

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IEEFA Update: The Global Energy Transformation Remains on Track

IEEFA Update: The Global Energy Transformation Remains on Track

U.S. Presidential Election Results Regardless, the Gathering Transition to Renewables Continues

Regardless of any potential or even likely shift in U.S. energy policies, the transition of global energy markets is firmly entrenched. A succession of financial and technology breakthroughs position renewable energy and efficiency as clearly price competitive in an increasing number of energy markets  Policy action, with the ratification of the Paris climate accord, reflects […]

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IEEFA Report: Three Timely Takeaways on 2016 Global Energy Transformation

IEEFA Report: Three Timely Takeaways on 2016 Global Energy Transformation

An Acceleration to Renewables, Faster-Than-Expected Shifts Regionally and Nationally, Growing Risk for Investors Who Lag Behind

Three notable takeaways emerge from the rapid transformation of the global energy economy, as we detail in a new paper we published today as the landmark Paris Agreement officially goes into effect. The global transition to renewables is accelerating. Change is happening faster than expected. Those left behind in this transition face growing financial risk. […]

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IEEFA Asia: Adani, in Latest Report to Investors, Skips Mention of Its Australian Coal Project

As Energy Markets Continue to Evolve, Less Likelihood Carmichael Mine Will Be Developed

Adani Enterprises Ltd—the 100 percent owner of Adani Mining Australia Pty Ltd, the entity that owns the massive Carmichael open-cut coal proposal—is reporting a net loss of US$11 million for the three months to September 2016. This comes on the back of a 33 percent year-on-year decline in operating profits and an 18 percent rise […]

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IEEFA Asia: Coal Price Increase Fueled by Unsustainable Blips in China and India

Overall Global Demand Is Still Declining

The surge in third-quarter coal prices is big news. Recent increases are both unexpected and unprecedented in magnitude. Coking coal is now US$213/t. Australian export thermal coal hit US$84/t this week, so it has nearly doubled from its decade low as well. So is the coal industry back to the races? To deny the price […]

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IEEFA Australia: The Zombie Australian Coal Project That Won’t Die

Adani’s Plans for Carmichael Are on Life Support, but Still Alive

The announcement this week by Queensland Mining Minister Anthony Lynham that the proposed open-cut Carmichael coal plan is considered a “prescribed project” is yet another reminder that you still can’t say for sure that Adani’s dreams for north Australia are dead. The strategic merit remains questionable, the quality of the coal the project would produce […]

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IEEFA Australia: World’s Biggest Open-Cut Coal Proposal is Smaller Now, Less Ambitious, Still Unbankable

IEEFA Australia: World’s Biggest Open-Cut Coal Proposal is Smaller Now, Less Ambitious, Still Unbankable

Adani’s Fading Dream of a Vast New Mine in Queensland

Even after news this week that it is being downsized enormously—and delayed once again—Adani’s plan to build the biggest open-cut mine in the world remains wholly unbankable. The project, envisioned in 2010 as a $16 behemoth that would produce 60 million tonnes a year, is now being pitched by Adana as a $4 billion, 25 […]

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IEEFA Update: Coming Soon to a Grid Near You, Cost-Competitive Solar

IEEFA Update: Coming Soon to a Grid Near You, Cost-Competitive Solar

Investment in Sun-Powered Electricity Has Gone Mainstream Around the World

The US$24.20/MWh tender for 350 megawatts of solar in the Middle East shows the price of solar dropping by 20 percent from US$30/MWh in five months and down now two-thirds from the US$58/MWh tender awarded just 20 months ago. (Here’s the story that appeared in The National, the government-owned news organization in Abu Dhabi, and […]

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IEEFA Asia: Higher Coal Prices, But Not Because of Demand in China and India 


A Bump That Will Not Last


The price of thermal coal—that used for power generation—has hit a new 2016 high this week of US$69/t, with spot coking coal reported to have doubled, to US$150/t. As to coking coal, the Australian Financial Review today warned that the spot market is very thinly traded and that the few trades around US$150 represent participants […]

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