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The International Energy Agency, out with its annual energy-markets forecast, “World Energy Outlook 2016,” remains behind the curve but not as far behind as it was. A history of IEA underestimation of technology change has been partially remedied in this new report, but the agency’s solar and wind forecasts can at best be described still […]

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IEEFA Update: IEA, Still Behind the Curve, Nonetheless Indicates Rising Stranded-Asset Risk in Fossil-Fuel Holdings

A Not-So-Distant Future in Which Thermal-Fired Electricity Generation Declines Precipitously

The International Energy Agency, out with its annual energy-markets forecast, “World Energy Outlook 2016,” remains behind the curve but not as far behind as it was. A history of IEA underestimation of technology change has been partially remedied in this new report, but the agency’s solar and wind forecasts can at best be described still […]

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IEEFA Asia: Rosy Prospects in Indonesian Coal?

A Note of Caution on Assuming That Recent High Prices Are Sustainable

As the U.S. coal industry hopes for an unlikely revival on the back of U.S. political developments, the Indonesian coal sector is riding a surge in thermal coal prices. Confidence was high already, as evidenced by coal giants Bukit Asam and Adaro Energy joining a late-October U.S. capital market road show sponsored by the Indonesian […]

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IEEFA China: Why the Rally in Coal Prices Is Unsustainable

A Short-Term Surge Is at the Mercy of Long-Term Trends

While thermal coal export prices have doubled since the first of the year, IEEFA remains of the view that the price spike is due solely to the confluence of several short-term policy and weather factors in China and India. By far the more important trend to watch is what’s seen in the 10.7 percent year-on-year, […]

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In Bankruptcy Reorganization, U.S. Coal Giant Alpha Is Overstating Cash Flows by $100 Million, Regulators Say

Taylor Kuykendall for SNL: West Virginia regulators admonished Alpha Natural Resources Inc. for a five-year business projection that overstated “cash flows by a whopping $100 million.” The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection noted it would not challenge a settlement resolving the shortfall between Alpha and Contura Energy Inc., the entity formed from the bankruptcy […]

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North Dakota Oil Production Falls

Daniel J. Graeber for UPI: A regulator in North Dakota said low oil prices were in part behind the decline in crude oil production, last reported at its lowest level since early 2014. The North Dakota Industrial Commission reported crude oil production in September, the last full month for which it has data, at 971,658 […]

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Op-Ed: The Coal Industry Isn’t Coming Back

Michael E. Webber for the New York Times: Many in Appalachia and other coal-mining regions believe that President Obama’s supposed war on coal caused a steep decline in the industry’s fortunes. But coal’s struggles to compete are caused by cheap natural gas, cheap renewables, air-quality regulations that got their start in the George W. Bush […]

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On the Blogs: Across U.S., Bipartisan, Grass-Roots Support for Renewables

Dave Roberts for Vox: There are many things that divide Americans, but they are generally united on the benefits of making money. Even as the (small and shrinking) number of coal jobs gets endless media attention, renewable energy has scaled up to become a serious employer in the US. And it’s happening in places far […]

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‘Ironically,’ Dakota Access Pipeline Risks Defeat by Low Prices and Oil Infrastructure Glut

Chris White for the Daily Caller: The Dakota Access Pipeline is at risk of becoming an abandoned project due to historically low oil prices, according to a report published Wednesday by an energy research firm. The report, “The High-Risk Financing Behind the Dakota Access Pipeline: A Potential Stranded Asset in the Bakken Region of North […]

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IEEFA Analysis: The Economic Frailties and Rickety Finances Behind the Dakota Access Pipeline

Shippers Are in a Position Now to Renegotiate Contracts; Oil Prices Have Tanked Since Deals Were Signed; Long-Term Outlook for Project is Deeply Uncertain

Construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline has sparked considerable public controversy, bringing national attention to issues that include tribal sovereignty and risks to drinking water. Less publicized are the project’s financial weaknesses, and the fact the pipeline may represent a substantial overbuilding of the Bakken’s oil-transport infrastructure. The report that we released today in partnership […]

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