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The International Energy Agency, out with its annual energy-markets forecast, “World Energy Outlook 2016,” remains behind the curve but not as far behind as it was. A history of IEA underestimation of technology change has been partially remedied in this new report, but the agency’s solar and wind forecasts can at best be described still […]

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IEEFA Update: IEA, Still Behind the Curve, Nonetheless Indicates Rising Stranded-Asset Risk in Fossil-Fuel Holdings

A Not-So-Distant Future in Which Thermal-Fired Electricity Generation Declines Precipitously

The International Energy Agency, out with its annual energy-markets forecast, “World Energy Outlook 2016,” remains behind the curve but not as far behind as it was. A history of IEA underestimation of technology change has been partially remedied in this new report, but the agency’s solar and wind forecasts can at best be described still […]

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IEEFA Asia: Rosy Prospects in Indonesian Coal?

A Note of Caution on Assuming That Recent High Prices Are Sustainable

As the U.S. coal industry hopes for an unlikely revival on the back of U.S. political developments, the Indonesian coal sector is riding a surge in thermal coal prices. Confidence was high already, as evidenced by coal giants Bukit Asam and Adaro Energy joining a late-October U.S. capital market road show sponsored by the Indonesian […]

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IEEFA China: Why the Rally in Coal Prices Is Unsustainable

A Short-Term Surge Is at the Mercy of Long-Term Trends

While thermal coal export prices have doubled since the first of the year, IEEFA remains of the view that the price spike is due solely to the confluence of several short-term policy and weather factors in China and India. By far the more important trend to watch is what’s seen in the 10.7 percent year-on-year, […]

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IEEFA Analysis: The Economic Frailties and Rickety Finances Behind the Dakota Access Pipeline

Shippers Are in a Position Now to Renegotiate Contracts; Oil Prices Have Tanked Since Deals Were Signed; Long-Term Outlook for Project is Deeply Uncertain

Construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline has sparked considerable public controversy, bringing national attention to issues that include tribal sovereignty and risks to drinking water. Less publicized are the project’s financial weaknesses, and the fact the pipeline may represent a substantial overbuilding of the Bakken’s oil-transport infrastructure. The report that we released today in partnership […]

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IEEFA Exxon: A Company in Need of More Accountability at the Top

As Directors Ponder CEO's Successor, Will They Seek a Much-Needed Change in Meeting Performance Standards?

ExxonMobil has been reducing its cash returns to investors over the past few years, a trend we highlighted in our report last week, “Red Flags on Exxon Mobil,” but has still paid out far more to investors than standard financial metrics would support.  Indeed, all indicators, including the company’s recent announcement that it will likely de-book […]

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IEEFA Update: The Global Energy Transformation Remains on Track

U.S. Presidential Election Results Regardless, the Gathering Transition to Renewables Continues

Regardless of any potential or even likely shift in U.S. energy policies, the transition of global energy markets is firmly entrenched. A succession of financial and technology breakthroughs position renewable energy and efficiency as clearly price competitive in an increasing number of energy markets  Policy action, with the ratification of the Paris climate accord, reflects […]

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IEEFA Exxon: Why the Abrupt Revision on Reserves?

Oil Giant Owes Investors Answers, and Much More Transparency

The headline news out of ExxonMobil’s third-quarter earnings call last week bears repeating: If low prices persist during the fourth quarter of 2016 then as much as 4.6 billion barrels of the company’s oil reserves in Canada and North America would no longer qualify as proven reserves.   This makes ExxonMobil the latest in a […]

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IEEFA Exxon: The Problems Are More Than Cyclical

All Signs Point to Low Oil Prices Going Forward

Some stock analysts say the problems afflicting ExxonMobil are cyclical, which would mean that a spike or increase in oil prices are on the horizon and that the company will move back into the black across the board when that happens.  But the fact is that a rebound in oil prices is unlikely. Independent assessments—from […]

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IEEFA Update: FirstEnergy, on Thin Ice, Walks Away From a Half Million Ohio Households in Hopes of Saving Itself

A Break with the Northeast Ohio Public Energy Council Is the Latest Sign, Among Many, That a Poorly Run Utility Is on the Ropes

FirstEnergy’s financial tailspin took a spectacular turn late last month when the company abruptly cancelled the three remaining years of a nine-year contract to supply electricity to the Northeast Ohio Public Energy Council (NOPEC), a group that provides power to 500,000 customers. What’s happening here in Ohio, in brief, is that FirstEnergy’s bad business decisions […]

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